Evidence
Establish what we know.
Separate observations, judgements and assumptions. Understand where evidence is strong, incomplete or conflicting.
OUR APPROACH
Begin with the decision.
What needs to be decided, by whom and by when?
Mechanisms
Understand what drives it.
Connect the evidence to incentives, processes and causal pathways. Identify how a risk or opportunity could affect the organisation.
Consequences
Make the implications clear.
Assess financial and institutional consequences using models, expert knowledge or scenarios appropriate to the evidence.
Choices
Define a way forward.
Compare realistic options against the decision-maker’s objectives, constraints and capacity to act.
Learning
Keep the decision sound.
Identify what to monitor, who owns the next steps and which changes should trigger a fresh decision.
Andi's Methodologies
Different uncertainties.
Different ways to reason.
Model the range.
We use probabilistic modelling and sensitivity analysis when there is a defensible basis for the assumptions.
Structure the judgement.
We draw on relevant expertise to support explicit reasoning and preserve meaningful disagreement.
Test plausible futures.
We compare scenarios and robust options when reliable probabilities cannot be established.
The context changes
the analysis.
An interview, a transaction pattern or an operational constraint can change how the problem is modelled.
Qualitative findings can change a causal pathway, an assumption, a scenario or a condition for proceeding.
Quantitative analysis then helps assess the implications.
The recommendation should explain both.
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